NIFTY 19000 !!!
Today, as Benchmark Indices reached unprecedented heights in the trading arena, the remarkable resilience of stock prices across the broader markets left many experienced investors, who were patiently waiting for a significant correction, mere bystanders.
Amidst a wave of positive global signals, the Indian stock market soared to new heights on Wednesday, achieving all-time record levels.
The Sensex boldly crossed the significant milestone of 64,000 points, while the Nifty index reached a remarkable intraday high of 19,000 points, marking the highest level achieved this year. This remarkable surge in value can be attributed to the increasing demand for credit, even amidst the Monsoon season, which is gradually making up for lost ground in various regions of the country.
The recent rally in the Nifty, where it crossed the 19,000 mark, has surprised many investors. Just two days before the rally, there were indications of a potential downtrend. However, the rally occurred due to a specific reason. Many traders were expecting a correction and had bearish positions in the Nifty and individual stocks. As yesterday was the last day of the June month’s F&O (Futures and Options) contract expiry, these traders had to buy to square off their positions, resulting in a surge in the market.
It’s worth noting that while large Nifty 50 stocks such as TCS, INY, and HDFC Bank didn’t contribute much to the rally, other stocks compensated by rallying well. This kind of divergence between different stocks is not uncommon during market movements.
Regardless of the short-term fluctuations, it’s important for investors to stick to their investment approach, whether it’s long-term, mid-term, or short-term investing. This rally would have brought happiness to both short-term traders who made profits in the last 2-3 months and long-term investors whose portfolios turned from red (loss) to green (profit). However, it’s essential to remain cautious and consider the future outlook of the market before making any investment decisions.
Driving this surge were the stellar performances of Adani stocks, Tata Motors, and NTPC, which emerged as frontrunners in the market.
Contributing to the overall bullish sentiment, the majority of sectors concluded the day in the green, with the Metal and Pharma sectors leading the rally with remarkable gains.
FUNDAMENTAL VIEW ON MARKET AS ON 28-6-2023 :
With the exception of today’s upward surge, the overall performance of the Indian markets, represented by the Nifty index, has remained relatively stagnant week after week. However, this recent uptick has propelled the Nifty to reach new heights. On the other hand, the Bank Nifty has shown a lacklustre performance during this period but is expected to take the lead in the upcoming rally in July, thanks to the anticipated HDFC merger.
Meanwhile, the US markets have continued to showcase positive trends. Consumer confidence has reached its highest level since January 2022, and new home sales have experienced a significant surge of 12.2%, reaching their highest level since February 2022. Furthermore, home prices in the top 20 cities in the US have risen by 0.9% in April. These encouraging figures contribute to the notion that, while there is a possibility of another interest rate hike, the likelihood of a recession is diminishing, paving the way for a soft landing. This positive sentiment is reflected in the buoyancy of the market, alleviating concerns regarding emerging markets.
Despite the recent Russian coup attempt, crude prices have remained stable to weak. The downward pressure on crude prices can largely be attributed to the weaker macroeconomic conditions in China, while the global health of the economy is being called into question.
TECHNICAL VIEW AS ON 28-06-2023 :
In our assessment, the market’s upward bias is expected to persist until the Nifty reaches the level of 18,500. Only if this crucial threshold is breached would we anticipate a potential shift in the market’s trend, signaling a possible reversal.
EXPECTED MARKET TREND TILL 30-06-2023
Nifty RANGEBOUND with 18850-18600
